You still lose, just less often
Dear Mark,
Every basic strategy card, blackjack book, and yes, you,
recommend splitting eights against a dealer 10. Well, fear
gets the better of me, and I depart from correct play and
just hit instead of splitting the pair. So what should I
do about a hand that always seems to haunt me? Hit, split
or play the hunch? Scott N.
You're right, Scott, eights against a 10 is a phantasmal
hand that stalks most players like Marley's ghost.
As my readers know, blackjack is a game where the proper
hit, stand, splitting and doubling decisions are necessary
in order to cut the house edge down to a minimum. These
proper decisions are called basic strategy and have been
arrived at by computer simulations of millions of hands.
But fallacious logic tells you that splitting this hand
creates two losers. Seems every time you split those eights
you get, at best, two 10s. Then the dealer always has a
nine or 10 in the hole, and bang, the jingling you hear
is not Marley's forged chains but all your money falling
into the dealer's tray.
So what happens to the average player? He starts deviating
from basic strategy because FEAR sets in. The FEAR is actually
False Evidence Appearing Real. FEAR camouflages the logic
of computer studies. But according to basic strategy, the
proper move is to split 8s if the game you're playing doesn't
allow surrender. Why? Because you will lose more money in
the long run if you hit instead of splitting. Mathematically,
when you just hit the hand, you will lose $51 for every
$100 wagered. However, if you split, you will lose $44 for
every $100 bet. A seven dollar difference for every hundred
dollars wagered.
Granted, Scott, it's a character builder to come out of
pocket with additional money, but the key behind basic strategy
is: Win more money not necessarily more hands.
Dear Mark,
I've been around computers since 1978 and some folks even
call me a computer genius. My new project is to develop
a hand-held computer I can conceal in my pocket and try
counting cards with much more accuracy. What are the risks/consequences
if caught with a hand-held computing device in my possession
in a casino? Anonymous
Dear Anonymous, allow me to let Beavis and Butthead spell
it out for you: "Just because you own a computer doesn't
mean you still can't be stupid."
Dear
Mark,
I have been following your advice and making casino bets
that have less than a two percent house advantage. I now
consider myself a reformed player. My blockhead brother
on the other hand makes bets with no rhyme or reason. Since
we both play craps, show me why my pass line bet versus
his favorite bet, hardway sixes and eights, will always
do better? Susan M.
Susan, by using a simple mathematical formula, I will prove
that by playing smart, your play will generally outperform
your brother's.
Let's first analyze your action, Susan. A pass line bet,
with no odds, has a house advantage of 1.4%. With a $5 wager
and 50 playing decisions per hour, your theoretical loss
(all bets lose over time) is $5 X 50 X 0.014, or $3.50 per
hour. Relatively cheap entertainment. In comparison, your
brother's bet, the hard six or eight, has a house advantage
of 9.1%. The damage to his bankroll would be $5 X 50 X 0.091,
or $22.75 in the same amount of time. Multiply that by 15
hours of play and you've got a sniveling, unhappy camper
with a long car ride home.
Sibling rivalry aside, glad to see you're reforming your
play. Now let's convert the blockhead.
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